Microhoo: August Surprise

In the world of mergers and acquisitions, it's never over.

Folks are selling their Yahoo shares after Microsoft abandoned its efforts to take over the company last weekend, but they might want to start buying again in July.

Yes, Yahoo wanted more money than the company is worth (assuming one puts any credence in the valuation of Internet firms when the reality is that a new site can knock out a leading competitor in a couple of months). But it's clear that Yahoo will be worth even less if it follows through on an advertising deal with Mr. Potter, er, Google. That would represent total capitulation in the one promising area of future revenue for the firm. And that's also the one hook that Yahoo had for Microsoft: the potential to combine forces with Microsoft on the Internet ad front to compete with Google.

So, my bet is that Microsoft's Ballmer will launch another takeover bid when Yahoo's shares dip below $20 again. And since M&A kids love to ruin an acquisition target's holidays, send lawyers into double-triple overtime, and look for the bottom price, I fearlessly predict that in August, we'll all be covering this story--again.

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